Donald Trump: Rally, Nov 4, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Grand Rapids, MI rally?
Markets
22 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans | Yes | 86%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Pocahontas | Yes | 82%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | Yes | 74%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 70%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Gun 5+ times | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| God 4+ times | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China 7+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake Jobs | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reagan | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Rogan | Yes | 23%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | No | 81%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Shanghai | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamala 25+ times | No | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome/TDS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dark MAGA | No | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela/Venezuelan 5+ times | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Michigan 20+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peanut/Squirrel | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tampon | No | 22%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | 19%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 3%n=46 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-grand-rapids-mi-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP