Donald Trump: Speech, Sep 24, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Georgia speech?
Markets
20 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marxist | Yes | 68%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 25+ times | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Alaska | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Make America Affordable Again | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mexico | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President Xi 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tips 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unrealized | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tips | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tampon | No | 55%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | 49%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Black Jobs | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Salt/SALT | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 21%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-georgia-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP