Donald Trump: Rally, Oct 11, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Colorado rally?
Markets
22 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 65%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| God 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hillary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FEMA | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 30+ times | Yes | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 76%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Missile Defense Shield | No | 72%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fracking 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Too Big To Rig | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Death Tax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hurricane 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Carolina 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sleepy/Crooked Joe 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala 30+ times | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Reagan | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 9%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Green New Scam 2+ times | open | – | 26¢ Polymarket |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-colorado-rally · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP