Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 27, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Michigan town hall?
Markets
17 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon Musk | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Get out and vote | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Liquid Gold 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 15+ times | No | 64%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tips | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border 30+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comrade Kamala 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reagan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Black Jobs | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 17%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-michigan-town-hall · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP