Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 20, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Pennsylvania town hall?
Markets
21 words · 14 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | Yes | 49%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Drill baby drill | Yes | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Get out and vote | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 20+ times | Yes | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA 3+ times | Yes | 42%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Frack/Fracking 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Liquid gold | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tips | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 10+ times | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Women's sports | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hispanic 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Comrade Kamala | No | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 60 Minutes | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI | No | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 8%n=27 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-town-hall-oct-20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP