Donald Trump: Speech, Sep 28, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during Wisconsin speech?
Markets
21 words · 6 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's | Yes | 68%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Border 15+ times | Yes | 65%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Aurora | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congo | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 30+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World War 3 | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trans | No | 64%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Putin 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tip 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon Musk | No | 55%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Missile Shield | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestinian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President Xi 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax Queen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelensky | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Comrade Kamala 3+ times | No | 38%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Black Jobs | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 16%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP