Donald Trump: Press conference, Apr 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Iran press conference?
Polymarket What will Trump say during news conference on April 6?
Markets
61 words · 37 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 67%n=222 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 66%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 64%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 60%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 60%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 59%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 55%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 53%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | Yes | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 51%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Make a Deal | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Equipment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Easter / Egg | Yes | 48%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Peace / War 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ISIS | Yes | 47%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| New Regime / Regime Change | Yes | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | Yes | 45%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 44%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Bridge | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pilot / Crew / Staff 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 42%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Power / Strength | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| CIA / Ratcliffe | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hell 2+ times | Yes | 41%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Caine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| F-15 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rescue / Rescued | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stone Age | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ground | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | 34%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 32%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 61%n=138 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 57%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | 57%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 48%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 47%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Afghanistan | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Dominance / Superiority | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Left Behind | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear dust | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NASA / Moon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 41%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 40%n=192 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Cyber | No | 40%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg / Island | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fuck / Fucking | No | 34%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Leader | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Withdraw / Withdrew / Withdrawing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 33%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg Island | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 26%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | No | 20%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=330 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26APR06B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP