Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Dinner with the Prime Minister of Japan?
Markets
26 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 66%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 58%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 56%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 55%n=208 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 55%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Shinzo / Abe | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 50%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Invested / Investment | No | 48%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=175 from settlement history | – |
| Korea | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 46%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Baseball | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | No | 41%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Sushi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pearl Harbor | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Toyota | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 31%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 31%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Kim Jong Un / Rocket Man | No | 30%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 26%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=311 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAR19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP