Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Friends of Ireland Luncheon?
Markets
16 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 55%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 52%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | Yes | 47%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 65%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 58%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=205 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ellis Island | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Emerald | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Civil War | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 28%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 22%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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