Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Shamrock Bowl Presentation?
Markets
24 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | Yes | 58%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 52%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Golf / Golfing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Luck / Lucky | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Emerald | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Excursion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 28%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Midnight Hammer | No | 70%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 65%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 61%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=205 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 55%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 47%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 42%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Notre Dame | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ellis Island | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Civil War | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| McDonald's / McDonald | No | 38%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba | No | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 22%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR17C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP