Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump and Melania say during Chicago Opening Night?
Markets
21 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | No | 66%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | No | 64%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 63%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy / Biden | No | 61%n=226 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 56%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| 250 / 250th | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Movie star | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 45%n=188 from settlement history | – |
| Chicago | No | 43%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Tremendous | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ahead of schedule | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billy / Roxie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marble | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Seat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender / Women's Sports | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Strait / Hormuz | No | 34%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 30%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 23%n=41 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-and-melania-say-during-chicago-opening-night · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP