Donald Trump: Keynote, Nov 5, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say at the America Business Forum on November 5?
Markets
23 words · 16 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest | Yes | 58%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Through the roof | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 7+ times | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 47%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | Yes | 47%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 5+ times | Yes | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Scam | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Communist | Yes | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | Yes | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Coal | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| IQ | Yes | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 19%n=162 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Tylenol | No | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Wealthy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Beef | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jerome / Too Late | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 26%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-at-the-america-business-forum-on-november-5 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP