Donald Trump: Remarks at Anduril Industries, Oct 6, 2026
In remarks on Oct 6, 2026, Donald Trump said 26 of the 45 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
45 words · 26 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 61%n=200 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 58%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 54%n=256 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 53%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | Yes | 51%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | Yes | 48%n=124 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 48%n=354 from settlement history | – |
| Navy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Submarine | Yes | 44%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tomahawk | Yes | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Sub / Submarine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Palmer / Luckey | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wes / Moore | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 38%n=195 from settlement history | – |
| Moon / Space | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Autonomous / Autonomy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 37%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | 36%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 34%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 3+ times | Yes | 33%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Shipbuilding / Shipyard | Yes | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=270 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 29%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 24%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 24%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | 14%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=370 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | No | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 47%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Shit / Ass | No | 47%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 45%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Wind / Scam | No | 45%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 45%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Biden 5+ times | No | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 44%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Discombobulator / Discombobulated | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hyundai | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fury | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Merit | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotics | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 31%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 22%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 19%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 10%n=48 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 17, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-06:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-06:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP