Donald Trump: Press conference, Mar 9, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Trump holds News Conference
Polymarket What will Trump say during press conference on March 9?
Markets
45 words · 24 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=197 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 59%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 56%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Energy | Yes | 56%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 51%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Barrel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 44%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tanker | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | 42%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | Yes | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Son | Yes | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 22%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 54%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Eight war / Eighth war | No | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 49%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 47%n=107 from settlement history | – |
| Jesus | No | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 46%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| Australia / Australian | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 38%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 38%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Draft / Drafted | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 36%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Kurd / Kurdish | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Yemen / Houthi | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 31%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 29%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Peace through strength | No | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | No | 27%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=298 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP