Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 19, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during Japanese PM events?
Markets
24 words · 10 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 53%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Trade / Tariff 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 3+ times | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shinzo / Abe | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Honor | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion / Skedaddle | Yes | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Japan / Japanese 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO / Friend / Ally 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | Yes | 34%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 59%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | No | 58%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 50%n=174 from settlement history | – |
| Emperor / King | No | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Kim / Korea | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 43%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 43%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg Island | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| US Steel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Decimate / Decimated | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tanker / Ship / Boat 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Toyota | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hiroshima / Nagasaki | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamikaze | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-japanese-pm-events · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP