Donald Trump: Remarks, Oct 1, 2026
Donald Trump: Remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company
In remarks on Oct 1, 2026, Donald Trump said 20 of the 39 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
39 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 59%n=199 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 57%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=369 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 55%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 55%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 53%n=255 from settlement history | – |
| Shit / Shitty | Yes | 51%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 50%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline 5+ times | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 45%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| No Tax on Overtime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Truck / Trucker 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| California | Yes | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Job 20+ times | Yes | 37%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 37%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 37%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Billion / Trillion | Yes | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 22%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Honda | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 51%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=352 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 48%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Indiana | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Boat | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| EPA | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| CAFE | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ford | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Freedom | No | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Electric Vehicle / EV | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 31%n=265 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 21%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 21%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 6%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=516 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 12, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-10-01:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-10-01:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP