Will “Republican” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Republican” was said on The Last Word in 29 of 59 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (49%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=59, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

45%from settlement history only · n=59counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no yes no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=republican

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Republican

Probability
45% · n=59
Settled
29/59 (49%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 23 by speakers the rule does not count.

Jon Ossoffguest30:31In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

videoother39:14In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

Every match in the transcript

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 29 by speakers the rule does not count.

Raphael Warnockguest21:53In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Raphael Warnockguest22:44In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

Open the appearance

What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 6 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

6 counted; 44 by speakers the rule does not count.

Cory Bookerguest41:49In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

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Find “Republican” in this transcript

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Find “Republican” in this transcript

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 22, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Oct 21, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes1
Oct 15, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Oct 7, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes2
Oct 6, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Oct 5, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes6
Oct 1, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Sep 30, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes1
Sep 22, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes1
Sep 21, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes1
Sep 14, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes2
Aug 27, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Aug 26, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Aug 25, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Aug 19, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Aug 11, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jul 30, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jul 29, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jul 22, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jul 20, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jul 16, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jul 15, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jul 7, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jun 30, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 25, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 23, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 17, 2026RepublicanKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 15, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jun 10, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 5, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 3, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 1, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
May 28, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
May 26, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
May 12, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Apr 6, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Apr 2, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Mar 31, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Mar 25, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Mar 24, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Mar 19, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Mar 6, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Feb 27, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 26, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Feb 17, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Feb 14, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 13, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 11, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 10, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 6, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 3, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jan 30, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jan 13, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Republican” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Republican” was said on The Last Word in 29 of 59 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (49%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability “Republican” is said on The Last Word next time?
45%, from settlement history (n=59). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Republican’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/republican (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=republican · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP