The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, May 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Tammy Baldwin say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
10 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 53%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 46%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Farmer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 29%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 35%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26MAY12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP