The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Cory Booker say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 67%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 56%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 13%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 56%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TSA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Laguardia / Newark | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 34%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 17%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26MAR25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP