The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Feb 17, 2026
Kalshi What will Ro Khanna say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redacted / Redaction / Unredacted | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | 15%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 75%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| No | –new new word, no probability yet | – | |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 21%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 13%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26FEB17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP