The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Sep 14, 2026
On the Sep 14, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 8 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 4 | 77 | ✓ | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 3 | 21 | ✓ | 50%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 2 | 17 | ✓ | 55%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption / Crook | Yes | 2 | 9 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 31 | ✓ | 17%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | 63%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 25%n=39 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-09-14:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-09-14:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP