The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Mar 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Amy Klobuchar say during her MS NOW interview?
Markets
10 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Renee / Pretti | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 74%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 26%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 26%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26MAR06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP