The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Feb 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Ro Khanna say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Redacted / Redaction / Unredacted | Yes | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 67%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Survivor / Victim | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pam / Bondi | No | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 29%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – | |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 20%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26FEB26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP