The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, May 26, 2026
Kalshi What will James Talarico say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 62%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 61%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 28%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Jesus / God | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AIPAC / Super PAC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26MAY26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP