The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Feb 6, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Abigail Spanberger on The Last Word
Markets
11 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooperate / Cooperation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Executive Order | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 19%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gerrymander / Gerrymandering | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Noem / Homan | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26FEB06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP