The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Aug 11, 2026
Kalshi What will Jamie Raskin say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
11 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 44%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 42%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Pirro / Burgum | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | Yes | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 57%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 50%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 50%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 47%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 39%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 26%n=33 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26AUG11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP