The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Oct 5, 2026
On the Oct 5, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 6 of the 14 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
14 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 6 | 50 | ✓ | 68%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 4 | 20 | ✓ | 69%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 2 | 73 | ✓ | 64%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | 73%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 14 | ✓ | 65%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 41%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 9 | ✓ | 39%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 38%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 19%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-10-05:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-10-05:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP