The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jul 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
11 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 56%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 46%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 69%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 36%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 27%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 27%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 26%n=21 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUL15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP