The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jul 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
16 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 65%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 56%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 78%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 64%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Bigot / Antisemite / Antisemitic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election Denier / Election Denial | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mike / Collins | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 38%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 36%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicaid / Medicare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 28%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 23%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 17%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUL16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP