The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jun 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
10 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 63%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 50%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 42%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted | No | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUN15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP