The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Oct 6, 2026
On the Oct 6, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 10 of the 13 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 6 | 13 | ✓ | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | 5 | 10 | ✓ | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 3 | 14 | ✓ | 50%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 3 | 13 | ✓ | 43%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Hinson | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas / Diesel | Yes | 2 | 11 | ✓ | 45%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 23%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 68%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 19 | ✓ | 47%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | 40%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 43 | ✓ | 38%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 0 | 95 | ✓ | 37%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-10-06:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-10-06:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP