The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Apr 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Jamie Raskin say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 57%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TSA | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 34%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 25%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 23%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 23%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26APR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP