The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Oct 15, 2026
On the Oct 15, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 5 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 2 | 13 | ✓ | 53%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Diesel | Yes | 2 | 9 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 18 | ✓ | 74%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 11 | ✓ | 70%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 2 | 43 | ✓ | 57%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 18 | ✓ | 70%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 43%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption / Crook | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 38%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 17 | ✓ | 37%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | 19%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-10-15:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-10-15:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP