The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jun 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Jamie Raskin say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 65%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 44%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | 39%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Slush Fund | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 51%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 33%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordability / Affordable | No | 29%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 29%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUN25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP