The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Feb 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
11 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Indict / Indicted / Indictment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Authoritarian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Seditious / Sedition | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Weaponized / Weaponizing / Weaponization | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26FEB13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP