The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Aug 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 56%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 48%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Lie / Lying | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Natalie / Harp | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | 65%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption / Crook | No | 47%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 40%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force One | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 30%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 28%n=27 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26AUG19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP