The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Oct 1, 2026
On the Oct 1, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 3 of the 13 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Diesel | Yes | 2 | 12 | ✓ | 42%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 1 | 107 | ✓ | 45%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation / Grocery | Yes | 1 | 9 | ✓ | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Election / Campaign | No | 0 | 28 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 11 | ✓ | 40%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 28%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Utility / Energy Prices | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-10-01:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-10-01:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP