The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jun 18, 2026
Kalshi What will James Talarico say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 72%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 46%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 74%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 59%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 48%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 43%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Jesus / God | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUN18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP