The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Sep 16, 2026
On the Sep 16, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whatley | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 2 | 22 | ✓ | 26%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 1 | 9 | ✓ | 56%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 1 | 16 | ✓ | 34%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 0 | 10 | ✓ | 42%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Medicaid / Medicare | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Farm / Farmer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 4 | ✓ | 16%n=40 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-09-16:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-09-16:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP