The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Feb 24, 2026
Kalshi What will Hakeem Jeffries say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
13 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 74%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 64%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unconstitutional / Constitution / Constitutional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 24%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FBI / Kash | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26FEB24 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP