The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Apr 6, 2026
Kalshi What will Chris Deluzio say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
9 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yes | 31%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 24%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 55%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Millionaire / Billionaire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 32%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 24%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 21%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26APR06 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP