The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jul 29, 2026
Kalshi What will James Talarico say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
11 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 65%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 47%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 37%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 73%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 43%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 25%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 24%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 17%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUL29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP