The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Feb 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Maxwell Frost say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
10 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Unredacted / Redacted / Redaction | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| First Amendment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border / Homeland | No | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26FEB14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP