The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jul 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Gary Peters say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
10 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 56%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 55%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 48%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 37%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 50%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Trillion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 28%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 21%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUL22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP