Will Donald Trump say “Antifa”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Antifa” at 6 of 30 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (20%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=30, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 7¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Antifa
- Probability
- 34% · n=30
- Settled
- 6/30 (20%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…ties to subversive and radical groups such as the Communist Party, USA, Antifa, and the Democrat Socialists of America. Communism will never be coming to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 30 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Antifa |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | ANTIFA |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Antifa | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Antifa | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (25 of 36 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 15 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Antifa | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Antifa | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Antifa | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Antifa | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Antifa | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Antifa | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Antifa”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Antifa” at 6 of 30 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (20%), most recently on Sep 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Antifa” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=30). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Antifa’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/antifa (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=antifa · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP