Will Donald Trump say “Kim Jong Un”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kim Jong Un” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (29%), most recently on Apr 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Kim Jong Un
- Probability
- 42% · n=7
- Settled
- 2/7 (29%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Kim Jong Un |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Kim Jong Un | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Kim Jong Un |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Kim Jong Un | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Kim Jong-Un | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Kim Jong Un | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Kim Jong Un | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Kim Jong Un | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Kim Jong Un”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kim Jong Un” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025 (29%), most recently on Apr 7, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Kim Jong Un” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Kim Jong Un’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/kim-jong-un (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=kim%20jong%20un · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP