Will Donald Trump say “Stupid Question”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid Question” at 10 of 34 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 15, 2026 (29%), most recently on Oct 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=34, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
35%from settlement history only · n=34Next: Weekly window, Oct 25, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 19¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Stupid Question
- Probability
- 35% · n=34
- Settled
- 10/34 (29%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 35 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Stupid Question |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Stupid Question |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Stupid Question | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Stupid Question | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| May 31, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 10, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 3, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Stupid Question | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Stupid Question”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Stupid Question” at 10 of 34 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 15, 2026 (29%), most recently on Oct 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Stupid Question” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=34). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Stupid Question’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/stupid-question (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=stupid%20question · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP