Will Donald Trump say “Moon”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Moon” at 19 of 38 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 7, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=38, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

61%from settlement history only · n=38Next: Weekly window, Oct 25, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=moon

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Moon

Probability
61% · n=38
Settled
19/38 (50%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 41 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 31, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 31 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window))
Oct 25, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 10 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window))
Oct 18, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed))
Oct 11, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed))
Oct 8, 2026MoonPolymarketYes–
Oct 8, 2026MoonKalshiYes–
Oct 6, 2026MoonKalshiNo–
Oct 4, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 30, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (30 of 42 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 27, 2026MoonKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 20, 2026MoonKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 13, 2026MoonKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed))
Sep 6, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed))
Aug 31, 2026MoonKalshiYes14
Aug 28, 2026MoonKalshiYes14
Aug 9, 2026MoonPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed))
Aug 2, 2026MoonPolymarketNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 15 known appearances transcribed))
Aug 2, 2026MoonKalshiNo– (settled no · not found in what we could read (10 of 15 known appearances transcribed))
Jul 31, 2026MoonKalshiYes8
Jul 29, 2026MoonKalshiNo–
Jul 23, 2026MoonPolymarketNo0
Jul 15, 2026MoonPolymarketNo0
Jul 15, 2026MoonKalshiNo0
Jul 8, 2026MoonKalshiNo0
Jul 4, 2026MoonPolymarketYes–
Jul 3, 2026MoonPolymarketYes1
Jun 30, 2026MoonKalshiYes4
May 31, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
May 15, 2026MoonPolymarketNo–
May 14, 2026MoonKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026MoonKalshiNo–
May 5, 2026MoonKalshiNo–
Apr 30, 2026MoonKalshiYes– (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window))
Apr 12, 2026MoonPolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Apr 6, 2026MoonPolymarketNo–
Apr 6, 2026MoonKalshiYes–
Nov 18, 2025MoonPolymarketNo–
Oct 19, 2025MoonPolymarketYes– (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet))
Sep 2, 2025MoonPolymarketNo–
Mar 7, 2025MoonPolymarketNo–
Mar 7, 2025MoonKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Moon”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Moon” at 19 of 38 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 7, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Moon” next time?
61%, from settlement history (n=38). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Moon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/moon (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=moon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP