Will Donald Trump say “Voter ID”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Voter ID” at 7 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 22, 2024 (58%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Voter ID
- Probability
- 65% · n=12
- Settled
- 7/12 (58%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…no tax on social security for our great seniors. They voted against voter ID. They voted against proof of citizenship. They voted against securing our…
…citizen of our country with the Democrats. They don't have to have voter ID, but we want voter ID, don't we? Huh? We're going to…
…no tax on social security for our great seniors. They voted against voter ID. Why? Because they want to cheat. They voted against proof of…
…you in jail. In other words, if you say, do you have voter ID? Do you have proof of citizenship? If you ask those words,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Voter ID |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Voter ID | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Voter ID | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Voter ID | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Voter ID | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Voter ID | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Voter ID |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Voter ID | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Voter ID | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Voter ID | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Voter ID | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Voter ID | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Voter ID”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Voter ID” at 7 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 22, 2024 (58%), most recently on Oct 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Voter ID” next time?
- 65%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Voter ID’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/voter-id (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=voter%20id · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP