# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-10-11 (settled) · 54 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT12 · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-october-5-october-11-20261011 · as_of 2026-10-24T03:47:42Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-10-11 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-21..2026-09-23 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26OCT12 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 12, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-october-5-october-11-20261011 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage 0 of 7 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-21T04:06:01Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 17 appearances since 2026-09-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-10-10:rally-tennessee: the rally video's captions (his turns only) (late)
# rows 1-21 of 54 by p · more: offset=21 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	K	13	11	0.85	YYYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.86	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	K	122	90	0.74	YnnYnYYYnY	8	0	0.86	hist	0	0	yes		1
Golf / Golfer / Golfing	golf|golfer|golfing	K	20	15	0.75	YYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.83	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Transgender	transgender	K	238	136	0.57	nYYYYYYYYY	8	1	0.79	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Landslide	landslide	K	63	43	0.68	nYYYnYYYYY	8	2	0.76	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Dividend / Stimulus	dividend|stimulus	K	26	15	0.58	YYYYYYYYYY	8	0	0.75	hist	0	0	yes		1
Canada / Canadian	canada|canadian	K	10	7	0.7	YYnYYYnYnY	8	1	0.74	hist	0	0	yes		1
Kamala	kamala	K	55	31	0.56	nnYYYnYYYY	8	0	0.74	hist	0	0	yes		1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	K	180	108	0.6	YYnYYYYYnY	8	0	0.72	hist	0	0	yes		1
Ukraine	ukraine	K	101	54	0.53	nnYYnYnnnY	8	1	0.72	hist	3	4	yes	1	
Melania	melania	K	84	53	0.63	YYYnnnYYYY	8	1	0.67	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	K	48	32	0.67	YYnYYYYnnY	8	0	0.66	hist	0	0	no		1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	K	57	37	0.65	nYYnnYnYYY	8	0	0.65	hist	0	0	no		1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	K	50	34	0.68	YYnnnnYnYY	8	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes		1
Blockade	blockade	K	27	12	0.44	nYYnYYYnnn	8	0	0.61	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Bibi / Netanyahu	bibi|netanyahu	K	70	32	0.46	YnYnnnYnYY	8	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes		1
Steel	steel	K	14	9	0.64	nnYYYnnYYn	8	0	0.58	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Save America Act	save america act	K	66	36	0.55	nnYYYYYnYY	8	0	0.58	hist	0	0	yes		1
Cuba / Cuban	cuba|cuban	K	31	16	0.52	YYnYnnYYYY	8	1	0.56	hist	0	0	no		1
Voter ID	voter id	K	10	5	0.5	nYnYYnYnnY	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	yes		1
Dictionary	dictionary	P	3	1	0.33	nnY	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	yes		1